For years, Kenya's coffee industry was synonymous with decline. Shrinking acreage, ageing trees, rising production costs, and land subdivision steadily eroded the country's position as a major coffee producer. In the late 1980s, Kenya's coffee production peaked at about 128,000 metric tonnes before declining to a low of 36,000 metric tonnes in 2010. Thereafter, the sector began a slow but steady recovery.
The latest Coffee Yearbook points to a remarkable turnaround. Coffee production reached 50,589 metric tonnes in the 2024/25 coffee year and is projected to increase by approximately 26 percent in the 2025/26 season, signalling renewed optimism across the coffee value chain. Coffee cooperative societies account for over 72 percent of total production, while coffee estates contribute the remaining 28 percent.
The question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained revival or simply a temporary rebound. What has driven this resurgence, and can it be sustained in the medium to long term?
One of the key drivers behind the projected growth is the expansion of land under coffee cultivation, which reached 117,164 hectares in the 2024/25 coffee year, up from approximately 108,000 hectares in the 2008/09 coffee year. Farmers who had previously abandoned coffee due to low returns are increasingly returning to the crop as global prices improve and sector reforms begin to bear fruit. Several coffee-growing counties have also intensified efforts to rehabilitate neglected farms and encourage new planting, helping to reverse years of declining acreage.
Alongside increased acreage, Kenya is witnessing a significant rise in the distribution of improved coffee seedlings. The adoption of varieties such as Batian and Ruiru 11 has gained momentum, offering farmers higher yields, improved disease resistance, and greater resilience to changing climatic conditions. While traditional varieties such as SL28 and SL34 remain highly prized for their exceptional cup quality, the newer varieties are helping farmers strike a balance between quality and productivity.
Another encouraging development is the improvement in farm-level productivity. For many years, low yields, rather than limited land, were the greatest constraint facing Kenyan coffee farmers. The national average yield increased from 444 kilograms per hectare in the 2022/23 coffee year to approximately 450 kilograms per hectare in 2024/25. Although modest, this improvement reflects better agronomic practices, improved pest and disease management, and enhanced farmer training and capacity-building programmes implemented by the national and county governments, with support from development partners and international organisations.
Government interventions have also played a critical role in the sector's recovery. Recent reforms have placed farmers' interests at the centre of the coffee value chain by improving farmer earnings, strengthening cooperative governance, and enhancing transparency in coffee marketing. Additional interventions, including subsidised farm inputs, expanded extension services, and improved access to affordable financing, have encouraged more farmers to invest in coffee production. Collectively, these measures have helped restore coffee as a national economic priority.
The sector's improved performance is also evident in export statistics. Total coffee export volumes increased by 3.0 percent to 50,675 metric tonnes, while export earnings rose by 17.45 percent to USD 343.99 million (KES 43.89 billion), reinforcing coffee's position as one of Kenya's leading foreign exchange earners. The United States emerged as Kenya's largest export destination in the 2024/25 coffee year, accounting for 21.4 percent of exports by value (USD 71.51 million). Belgium (16.44 percent), Germany (12.53 percent), the Republic of Korea (5.97 percent), and Canada (4.87 percent) completed the top five export markets.
The impact of these developments on farmer incomes has been substantial.
The average export price per 60-kilogram bag increased from USD 357 to USD 407 during the 2024/25 coffee year, reflecting favourable international market prices. Consequently, the national average cherry payout to farmers increased by more than 40 percent, rising from KES 81 per kilogram to KES 114 per kilogram.
For the more than 800,000 coffee farmers across the country, these higher earnings translate into improved livelihoods, enabling greater investment in education, healthcare, housing, and farm improvements.
However, sustaining this recovery will require continued effort. Climate change remains a significant threat, with erratic rainfall patterns and rising temperatures posing long-term risks to production. High input costs, labour shortages, and continued land fragmentation also remain significant challenges to profitability and long-term growth.
The projected increase in production should therefore be viewed not as an end in itself, but as the beginning of a broader transformation. If Kenya can continue improving productivity, supporting farmers, strengthening value addition, and expanding market access, the country's coffee resurgence could become one of the most significant agricultural success stories of the decade.
After years of stagnation, the future of Kenyan coffee looks considerably brighter.